Model answer & approach
- The world currently has been in the throes of a twin process of ‘democratic backsliding’ and ‘democratic backlash’. How would you explain this paradox? (Answer in 350 words)
Introduction
Backsliding is the erosion of democracy by elected incumbents; backlash is both the cultural revolt that empowers them and the mobilised reaction against them. Read as a sequence rather than a contradiction, the paradox dissolves.
Body
1. Backsliding is now incremental and legal: Nancy Bermeo (2016) showed that coups have given way to executive aggrandisement, and Levitsky and Ziblatt's How Democracies Die (2018) traces the capture of referees, the sidelining of rivals and the rewriting of rules. Hungary since 2010, Poland under PiS, Turkey's 2017 referendum and Tunisia after 2021 are the templates, and V-Dem records more people living under autocratising than democratising regimes.
2. Its raw material is cultural backlash: Norris and Inglehart (2019) explain the authoritarian-populist reaction of older, less-educated and non-metropolitan voters to post-material value change. Migration and cost-of-living shocks give it electoral form, so backlash against liberalism supplies the mandate for backsliding.
3. Backsliding then generates a second backlash: because autocratisers still need elections for legitimacy — Levitsky and Way's competitive authoritarianism — they leave a door open. Poland in 2023, Brazil after 2022, Sri Lanka's Aragalaya, Bangladesh in 2024 and South Korea's rejection of martial law in December 2024 walked through it.
4. The paradox is really about timing: erosion is gradual and hard to dramatise, which Ozan Varol calls stealth authoritarianism, so opposition mobilises late and against an accumulated grievance.
5. Both symptoms share one cause — representation: Chantal Mouffe argues that a post-political centrist consensus foreclosed genuine adversarial choice, so discontent exits into anti-system politics, first against liberal elites and then against the incumbents who abused that mandate.
6. The asymmetry matters: backlash succeeds only where courts, federal units, independent media or a unified opposition survive. Where capture is complete, as in Russia or Nicaragua, no visible backlash appears at all.
Conclusion
The two processes are one process seen at different moments: backsliding is what happens when backlash wins office, and backlash is what happens when publics discover its price. Whether recovery follows depends on whether the referee institutions outlast the incumbents dismantling them.
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