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UPSC Optional 2025Question 28Political Science and International RelationsIndia and South Asia250 words

Discuss the potential role India can play in initiating a possible phase of trilateral economic engagement among India, China and Nepal. (Answer in 250 words)

Model answer & approach

- Discuss the potential role India can play in initiating a possible phase of trilateral economic engagement among India, China and Nepal. (Answer in 250 words)
Introduction
A trilateral with China and Nepal is not something India can veto, only shape. Nepal will engage Beijing regardless, so Indian absence would convert the trilateral into a bilateral directed against India.

Body
1. The idea already exists: Nepal has floated a trans-Himalayan corridor since 2018, China proposed a China-Nepal-India Economic Corridor, and Kathmandu signed the Belt and Road framework in 2017 and its cooperation framework in December 2024.
2. India's structural position is strong: the 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship, an open border, roughly two-thirds of Nepal's trade and almost all its third-country transit.
3. Nepal's diversification is a reaction: the 2015 blockade and the Kalapani map dispute of 2020 pushed Kathmandu toward the transit agreement with China, which remains largely unused because Kolkata and Visakhapatnam are cheaper.
4. Energy is the most realistic sector: the 2023 agreement to import 10,000 MW of Nepali hydropower over a decade, and the first Nepal-Bangladesh export through Indian lines in November 2024, prove trilateral power trade works.
5. But the binding constraint is Indian policy: India's cross-border power trade guidelines restrict imports from projects with Chinese investment, so India, not geography, decides how trilateral this becomes.
6. Genuine public goods exist: Kosi and Gandaki flood forecasting, glacier and glacial lake outburst monitoring, and Himalayan disaster response are trilateral by nature.
7. Connectivity remains distant: the Jayanagar-Kurtha rail and Raxaul-Kathmandu survey on one side and the Kerung-Kathmandu feasibility on the other are decades from meeting.

Conclusion
India should offer functional trilateralism — power, disaster management, hydrology and tourism circuits — while keeping strategic connectivity bilateral. Post-Galwan normalisation, from the October 2024 disengagement to the resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, sets the pace at which any such engagement can realistically move.
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