NCERT
Every NCERT book that matters for UPSC — open a book, then a chapter. Learn each chapter's concepts, then how UPSC tests them — with diagrams, flowcharts and the past questions to attempt.
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← Fundamentals of Human Geography — all chaptersThe World Population: Distribution, Density and Growth
Start here: why this chapter matters
In simple wordsImagine a classroom where 45 students squeeze onto five benches near the fan and the window, while the back of the room stays empty. The world's people are seated like that. This chapter asks where people sit, how tightly, why there, and how the class keeps growing — through new arrivals, departures and births.
Chapter 1 called population geography one of the main fields of human geography. This chapter opens Unit II with the world's population. NCERT's view is that people are the real wealth of a country: they are the resource that uses every other resource and decides its policies.
- Builds on Chapter 1: population geography's sister discipline is demography; the ideas about people and environment (determinism, possibilism) explain why people crowd some places and avoid others.
- Builds on Class 11 Physical Geography: landforms, climate (Chapter 11's Koeppen types), soils and water explain the geographical factors.
- Leads into Chapter 3 (Human Development) and the economic chapters: people are both the producers and the purpose of development.
- Pairs with India: People and Economy (Class 12), which applies the same tools to India.
- UPSC: GS1 (population and associated issues, migration, distribution of resources), GS2/GS3 (population policy, demographic dividend) and many prelims questions on density, demographic transition and the most populous countries.
| Word | What it means here |
|---|---|
| Population distribution | How people are spaced over the earth's surface |
| Population density | People per unit of area (persons per sq km) |
| Population growth (change) | Change in the number of people in an area over a period; can be positive or negative |
| Crude birth rate (CBR) | Live births in a year per 1,000 of the mid-year population |
| Crude death rate (CDR) | Deaths in a year per 1,000 of the mid-year population |
| Migration | Movement of people from a place of origin to a place of destination |
| Emigrant / immigrant | One who moves out of a place / one who moves into a place |
| Push / pull factors | What drives people out of the origin / what draws them to the destination |
| Demographic transition | The shift from high births and deaths to low births and deaths as a society develops |
| Family planning | Spacing or preventing the birth of children |
Reading the chapter-opening photograph and quotation (page 7)
- The photograph is a sea of heads, packed edge to edge with no gap — a visual of what high density feels like.
- The quotation box, from Ralph Waldo Emerson (NCERT adds ‘(Wo)’ to make it gender-neutral), says it is not gold but people who make a nation great — the same idea as the opening line: people are the real wealth of a country.
At a glance — the six ideas to carry away
- 90% of people live on about 10% of the land; the 10 most populous countries hold about 60% of humanity, 6 of them in Asia.
- Density = population ÷ area (persons per sq km): NCERT's Region X, 1,50,000 people on 100 sq km = 1,500 per sq km.
- Factors: geographical (water, landforms, climate, soils), economic (minerals, urbanisation, industrialisation), social and cultural.
- Natural growth = B − D; actual growth = B − D + In − Out; CBR = B/P × 1000, CDR = D/P × 1000.
- Migration: push factors at the origin, pull factors at the destination; emigrants leave, immigrants arrive.
- Demographic transition: stage I high births and deaths → stage II expanding (deaths fall first) → stage III low births and deaths. Malthus 1798: population outruns food.
1. Where people live: patterns of distribution
In simple wordsSprinkle sugar on a table with a few drops of water on it: the sugar sticks to the wet spots. People ‘stick’ in the same way to river valleys, plains and cities, and leave the dry, cold and steep parts of the earth almost empty.
Population distribution is the way people are spaced over the earth's surface. It is very uneven. The American geographer George B. Cressey said of Asia that it has ‘many places where people are few and few places where people are very many’ — and NCERT says the remark fits the whole world. Patterns of distribution and density help us understand the demographic characteristics of any area.
- At the start of the 21st century the world had over 6 billion people (NCERT; see the newer figures below).
- Broadly, 90 per cent of the world's people live on about 10 per cent of its land.
- The 10 most populous countries hold about 60 per cent of the world's population; 6 of them are in Asia.
Reading NCERT Figure 2.1 — Most Populous Countries (page 7)
- A horizontal bar chart, scale 0–1,600 million, no year given. Order: China (~1,350), India (~1,300), USA (~305), Indonesia (~245), Brazil (~220), Pakistan (~200), Nigeria (~165), Bangladesh (~140), Russia (~110), Mexico (~75).
- What it shows that the text does not: the huge gap between the top two and the rest — China and India together outnumber the next eight combined, several times over.
- NCERT asks you to identify the six Asian countries: China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Russia. Russia is transcontinental — most of its land is in Asia, but most of its people live in its European part. Without Russia the count is five.
NCERT's figure has dated — and has a slip
- The figure shows China ahead of India. Beyond NCERT: the UN estimated that India overtook China as the most populous country in April 2023 (UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2022). For NCERT's own questions, read the figure as printed.
- The bar for Mexico reads only about 75 million, but Mexico's 2010 census counted about 112 million. At that time the tenth-largest country was usually Japan (about 128 million), which is missing (Beyond NCERT). Treat the bottom of the chart with caution.
Beyond NCERT — the numbers today
- The UN marked the world reaching 8 billion on 15 November 2022.
- The UN's World Population Prospects 2024 projects that world population will peak at about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s and then slowly fall.
- About half of humanity lives between 20°N and 40°N — monsoon Asia, the Nile and the Mediterranean (UPSC 1997).
2. Density of population
In simple wordsTwo flats of the same size, one with two people and one with twelve, feel very different. Density is that feeling turned into a number: how many people share each square kilometre.
Each unit of land can support only so many people, so we compare the number of people with the size of the land. This ratio is the density of population, usually in persons per sq km:
Density of population = Population ÷ Area. NCERT's example: Region X has 1,50,000 people on 100 sq km, so its density is 1,500 persons per sq km.
What does 1,500 per sq km tell you about Region X? (NCERT's question)It is very densely populated — far above the world average (Beyond NCERT: roughly 60 per sq km of land today) and even above India's 382 per sq km at the 2011 Census (Beyond NCERT). Such a density usually means a fertile river plain with intensive farming, or an urban or industrial area. It also means heavy pressure on land, water and services.
Beyond NCERT — other kinds of density (asked by UPSC)
- Arithmetic density = total population ÷ total area — the one NCERT uses.
- Physiological density = total population ÷ cultivable (arable) land. It shows pressure on farmland: Egypt looks modest on arithmetic density but is very crowded on the narrow Nile strip. UPSC 1987 asked for its definition; of the options, ‘total population to total irrigated land area’ was the accepted key.
- Agricultural density = farm population ÷ cultivable land.
- UPSC 2009: among India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, India had the highest density. (Bangladesh, not among the options, is denser still.)
3. Why people live where they do: the factors
In simple wordsWhen a family picks a house it asks: is there water? Is the ground flat and safe? Is the weather bearable? Is there work nearby — a mine, a factory, a city? Is there a temple, school or relatives close by, and is the area peaceful? Whole populations make the same choices, just over centuries.
| Group | Factor | How it works (NCERT) | Example (NCERT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geographical | Availability of water | The most important need — drinking, bathing, cooking, cattle, crops, industry, navigation | River valleys are among the densest areas |
| Landforms | Plains and gentle slopes suit farming, roads and industry; mountains hinder transport | Ganga plains dense; Himalayan mountain zones sparse | |
| Climate | Hot and cold deserts, very heavy rain or harsh climates repel; comfortable climates with little seasonal change attract | Mediterranean lands settled since early history | |
| Soils | Fertile loamy soils support intensive agriculture | — | |
| Economic | Minerals | Mining and industry create jobs for skilled and semi-skilled workers | Katanga–Zambia copper belt, Africa |
| Urbanisation | Jobs, schools, hospitals, transport, civic amenities and city life draw rural migrants | Mega cities attract migrants every year | |
| Industrialisation | Factories create jobs for workers and for transporters, shopkeepers, bankers, doctors, teachers | Kobe–Osaka, Japan | |
| Social and cultural | Religion, culture, peace, policy | Places of religious or cultural importance attract; unrest drives people away; governments offer incentives to settle sparse areas or leave crowded ones | — |
⤵ From factors to density
Geographical basewater, flat land, mild climate, fertile soil → people can farm
Economic pullminerals, industry, cities → jobs
Social and political pull or pushholy places, peace, policy · unrest drives people away
Density patterndense: river valleys, plains, industrial belts, cities · sparse: deserts, polar lands, high mountains, dense equatorial forests
Exam traps
- NCERT calls water the most important factor for life.
- Not every hot wet place is crowded: equatorial rainforests (Amazon, Congo) are sparse, while South-east Asia — monsoon river plains such as Java's — is dense (exercise Q1-ii). UPSC 2001: the density of the Nile valley and Java is due to intensive agriculture.
- Mountains are sparse ‘initially’ — NCERT's word — because transport is hard, not because people cannot live there.
- Katanga is in the Democratic Republic of the Congo; the Copperbelt runs across the border into Zambia (Beyond NCERT).
4. Population growth and its components
In simple wordsThink of a water tank. Births and newcomers are two taps pouring water in; deaths and people leaving are two drains. Whether the water level rises or falls depends on all four together. That level is the population.
Population growth (or change) is the change in the number of inhabitants of an area over a period. It can be positive or negative and expressed in absolute numbers or as a percentage. It is an important indicator of a region's economic development, social upliftment and historical and cultural background.
| Concept (NCERT box, page 9) | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Growth of population | Change between two points of time in absolute numbers (India 2001 → 2011: 18.15 crore) |
| Growth rate | The same change as a percentage |
| Natural growth | Births − deaths |
| Actual growth | Births − deaths + in-migration − out-migration |
| Positive growth | Births exceed deaths, or people migrate in permanently |
| Negative growth | Population falls: births drop below deaths, or people emigrate |
Reading NCERT's box ‘Some Basic Concepts of Population Geography’ (page 9)
- Six definitions in one box, with a worked example from India: 2011 (121.02 crore) minus 2001 (printed as 102.70 crore) gives growth of 18.15 crore.
- The two formulas are the core: natural = B − D; actual = B − D + in-migration − out-migration.
- The box treats migration as part of both positive and negative growth — so a country can grow even with births below deaths, if immigration is large enough.
An arithmetic slip in the box121.02 − 102.70 = 18.32, not 18.15. India's 2001 Census population was actually 102.87 crore, and 121.02 − 102.87 = 18.15 — so ‘102.70’ is a misprint for 102.87 (Beyond NCERT). The 121.02 crore is the 2011 provisional total; the final count was 121.09 crore.
Crude birth rate (CBR) = (live births in the year ÷ estimated mid-year population) × 1,000. Crude death rate (CDR) = (deaths in the year ÷ estimated mid-year population) × 1,000. Both are per thousand. Population grows not only when births rise but also when deaths fall. Mortality depends on a region's demographic structure, social advancement and economic development.
Worked example (ours)A town of 2,00,000 (mid-year) records 5,000 live births and 1,600 deaths in a year. CBR = 5,000 ÷ 2,00,000 × 1,000 = 25; CDR = 1,600 ÷ 2,00,000 × 1,000 = 8; natural growth = 25 − 8 = 17 per thousand, or 1.7 per cent a year.
Beyond NCERT — total fertility rate (asked by UPSC 2024)The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children a woman would have by the end of her child-bearing years at current age-specific birth rates. A TFR of about 2.1 is the replacement level, at which a population eventually stops growing (without migration). India's TFR fell to 2.0 in the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019–21). Unlike the crude birth rate, TFR is not distorted by how many people are old or young.
5. Migration: push and pull
In simple wordsA young man leaves a village because the fields are dry and there is no work (a push), and goes to a city because his cousin says there are jobs and a hospital (a pull). Almost every migration story has both.
The place people leave is the place of origin (its population falls); the place they reach is the place of destination (its population rises). NCERT calls migration a spontaneous effort to achieve a better balance between population and resources. It may be permanent, temporary or seasonal, and rural to rural, rural to urban, urban to urban or urban to rural. Those who move in are immigrants; those who move out are emigrants — the same person is both.
⤵ One migration, step by step
Push at the originno jobs, poor living, turmoil, disaster, epidemic
Pull at the destinationjobs, better living, peace, security, pleasant climate
The movepermanent, temporary or seasonal
Origin loses peopleemigrants · out-migration
Destination gains peopleimmigrants · in-migration
Exam trapIn exercise Q1(iii), medical and educational facilities are a pull factor (they draw people to a destination), not a push factor; water shortage, unemployment and epidemics push.
Beyond NCERT — why big cities pull hardest (UPSC 2024)Large cities pull more migrants than small towns because they offer more and more varied jobs (including the informal sector), better wages, hospitals and colleges, and existing migrant networks of kin and community that cut the cost of moving. In developing countries this rural-to-urban flow also brings slums, congestion and strained services — NCERT's ‘yet city life can be very taxing’.
6. How fast the world has grown
In simple wordsFor most of history humanity grew like a slow trickle. Then, once doctors, clean water and more food cut deaths, it grew like a flood: it took all of history to reach one billion, and then only about twelve years to add each of the most recent billions.
Reading NCERT's ‘Do You Know’ box (page 10)
- Human population increased more than ten times in the past 500 years (NCERT misprints this as ‘500 hundred years’).
- In the twentieth century alone it increased four times.
- Exercise Q1(iv) turns the first line into a ‘fact’ — it is one.
Beyond NCERT — reading the curve
- 1 billion around 1804; 2 billion in 1927 (123 years later); then 3 (1960), 4 (1974), 5 (1987), 6 (1999), 7 (2011) and 8 billion (2022).
- From about 1.6 billion in 1900 to about 6.1 billion in 2000 is close to four times — NCERT's figure.
- The gaps are now widening again, because birth rates are falling worldwide — the late stages of demographic transition.
7. Demographic transition
In simple wordsPicture a village that gets a clinic and clean water. Babies stop dying, but parents still have six children out of habit — so the village swells. A generation later, with schools, city jobs and confidence that children will survive, parents choose two. The swelling stops. That middle swelling is the whole story of the last two centuries.
Demographic transition theory describes, and helps predict, the population of an area. As a society moves from rural, agrarian and illiterate to urban, industrial and literate, its population passes from high births and high deaths to low births and low deaths. The stages together are the demographic cycle.
| Stage I — high fluctuating | Stage II — expanding | Stage III — low fluctuating | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Births | High (large families compensate for deaths; children are farm hands) | High at first, then falling | Low; family size deliberately controlled |
| Deaths | High — epidemics, variable food supply | Falling — sanitation and health | Low |
| Growth | Slow | High — the gap between births and deaths | Stable or slow |
| Society | Agricultural; low life expectancy, illiteracy, low technology | Changing | Urbanised, literate, high technical know-how |
| NCERT examples | All countries 200 years ago; rainforest tribes, Bangladesh (at the end of stage I) | Peru; Sri Lanka, Kenya | Canada, Japan, USA |
Reading NCERT Figure 2.2 — Demographic Transition Theory (page 10)
- The vertical axis is CBR/CDR, marked at 35 and 15 per thousand: the curves start near 35 and end near 15.
- The stage names are on the graph only: High Fluctuating (stage I), Expanding (stage II), Low Fluctuating (stage III). Wiggly lines in stages I and III show rates bobbing up and down.
- The death-rate curve falls first and fastest; the birth-rate curve lags behind. The hatched area between them is labelled natural increase in population.
- A ‘Present World examples’ row places Bangladesh and rainforest tribes on the stage I/II line, Peru early in stage II, Sri Lanka and Kenya late in stage II, and Canada, Japan, USA in stage III. These placements are dated — Bangladesh, for example, has since moved well into the later stages (Beyond NCERT).
- A small box above the figure shows the transition as an arrow from ‘Rural, Agrarian’ to ‘Urban, Industrial’.
⤵ Why stage II expands
Health and sanitation improvedeaths fall quickly
Habits and family needs change slowlybirths stay high for a while
Gap between births and deathsnet addition to population is high
Urbanisation, literacy, technologybirths fall; stage III — stable or slow growth
Exam traps
- Order of stages: high birth + high death → high birth + low death → low birth + low death (UPSC 1993, 2012).
- Growth is slow in stage I, not high — the ‘not a fact’ in exercise Q1(iv).
- Deaths fall before births in stage II — that is why population explodes.
Beyond NCERT — after stage III
- The model was set out by Warren Thompson (1929) and developed by Frank Notestein (1945). Later versions add a further stage in which births fall below deaths and population shrinks — NCERT's ‘negative growth’.
- This is the ‘demographic winter’ (UPSC Mains 2024): very low fertility, ageing and decline. Japan, South Korea and Italy are the usual examples (UPSC Prelims 2024); Japan's population has been falling since around 2010, and South Korea's TFR is the world's lowest, below 1.
- For the Map Skill exercise, European and Asian countries with long-running negative growth include Japan, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Serbia and Croatia; lists change by year and source, so check a recent UN or World Bank table.
8. Population control and Malthus
In simple wordsIf a family's income rises by ₹1,000 every year but its expenses double every year, it will soon be in trouble. Malthus feared that people would multiply like the expenses while food grew like the income.
Family planning is the spacing or preventing of births. Access to it is a significant factor in limiting population growth and improving women's health. NCERT lists propaganda (awareness campaigns), free availability of contraceptives and tax disincentives for large families as measures that help.
Thomas Malthus (1798) argued that the number of people would grow faster than the food supply, and any further increase would end in a population crash through famine, disease and war. Preventive checks are better than these physical checks. NCERT's conclusion: for the sustainability of resources, the world must control rapid population increase.
⤵ Malthus's two kinds of checks
Population outruns foodgeometric vs arithmetic growth (Beyond NCERT detail)
Preventive checksfewer births: late marriage, restraint — and today, family planning
Positive (physical) checksmore deaths: famine, disease, war
NCERTpreventive checks are better than physical checks
Beyond NCERT — what happened to Malthus's prediction
- His book was An Essay on the Principle of Population. He argued that population tends to grow geometrically (1, 2, 4, 8 …) and food arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4 …). He called famine, disease and war positive checks; NCERT calls them ‘physical checks’.
- World food output has so far kept ahead of population, thanks to new technology such as the Green Revolution. Demographic transition also showed that fertility falls by itself as societies develop — the ‘human beings are extremely flexible’ point at the end of NCERT's transition section.
- Women's education and empowerment are now seen as among the strongest drivers of lower fertility (UPSC Mains 2019).
NCERT's in-text questions — short answers
Of the 10 most populous countries, 6 are in Asia. Identify these six countries. (page 7)
China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Russia (Russia counted as Asian because most of its territory is in Asia).
Why do people prefer to live in certain regions and not in others? (page 7)
Because of water, flat land, comfortable climate and fertile soil (geographical), minerals, industries and cities that offer jobs (economic), and religious or cultural importance, peace and government policy (social, cultural, political). Places that lack these — deserts, polar lands, high mountains, dense forests — stay sparse.
Region X has a density of 1,500 persons per sq km. What does this tell you about Region X? (page 8)
It is very densely populated — likely a fertile, well-watered plain with intensive agriculture, or an urban or industrial area — and its land, water and services are under heavy pressure.
Can you name some areas in India which are thinly populated due to poor soils? (page 8)
The sandy desert soils of western Rajasthan (Thar), the salty marshes of the Rann of Kutch, and the thin, rocky soils of hilly and plateau areas such as parts of the Aravallis and the interior Deccan. (Climate and water shortage also play a part in most of these.)
Yet city life can be very taxing … think of some of the unpleasant aspects of city life. (page 8)
Crowding and slums, high rents, traffic jams and long commutes, air and noise pollution, water shortages, waste, crime, stress, and the loneliness of living far from family.
Some places attract people for religious or cultural reasons; governments offer incentives to settle sparse areas or leave crowded ones. Can you think of some examples from your region? (page 9)
Pilgrim towns that grew around shrines — Varanasi, Puri, Tirupati, Amritsar, Ajmer. Examples of policy: new industrial towns and townships planned to draw people away from crowded metros; incentives for industries in backward or hill areas; resettlement schemes. Areas of unrest see people move away. (Use examples from your own state.)
Do you realise that the same person is both an immigrant and an emigrant? (page 10)
Yes. A worker who moves from Bihar to Punjab is an emigrant from Bihar (the place of origin) and an immigrant in Punjab (the destination). The label depends on which place you are counting from.
Can you think of reasons why people migrate? (page 10)
Work and higher wages, education, marriage, joining family, escaping drought, floods, conflict or persecution, better health care and amenities. NCERT groups them as push and pull factors.
NCERT exercise — answer outlines
Try each question yourself first, then open the outline to compare. The four multiple-choice questions are in the self-check below.
Name three geographical factors that influence the distribution of population. (30 words)
Availability of water (river valleys dense), landforms (plains dense, mountains sparse), climate (comfortable climates attract, extremes repel) — and also soils (fertile loams support intensive farming).
There are a number of areas with high population density in the world. Why does this happen? (30 words)
Dense areas combine water, flat fertile land and a mild climate (Ganga plain, Nile valley, Java) with jobs from minerals, industry and cities (Kobe–Osaka, mega cities). Long settlement history and cultural importance add to it.
What are the three components of population change? (30 words)
Births, deaths and migration. Natural growth = births − deaths; actual growth = births − deaths + in-migration − out-migration.
Distinguish between birth rate and death rate.
Crude birth rate: live births per 1,000 of mid-year population in a year (B/P × 1000); it adds to population and is shaped by family needs, literacy and family planning. Crude death rate: deaths per 1,000 of mid-year population (D/P × 1000); it subtracts from population and is shaped by health, sanitation, food supply, age structure and development. Their difference is the rate of natural increase.
Distinguish between push factors and pull factors of migration.
Push factors act at the place of origin and make it unattractive: unemployment, poor living conditions, political turmoil, unpleasant climate, natural disasters, epidemics, backwardness. Pull factors act at the destination and make it attractive: better jobs and living conditions, peace and stability, security of life and property, pleasant climate. Most migrations combine both.
Discuss the factors influencing the distribution and density of population in the world. (150 words)
Intro: distribution is very uneven — 90% of people on about 10% of land; density = population ÷ area.
Geographical: water (river valleys — Nile, Ganga, Yangtze); landforms (plains dense, Himalaya sparse); climate (Mediterranean settled early; hot and cold deserts, very wet areas sparse); soils (fertile loams → intensive farming).
Economic: minerals (Katanga–Zambia copper belt); industrialisation (Kobe–Osaka); urbanisation (mega cities pull rural migrants).
Social, cultural, political: religious centres attract; unrest repels; government incentives redistribute people.
Result: dense — East and South Asia, Europe, north-eastern USA; sparse — Sahara, Arctic, Amazon, Tibet (Beyond NCERT examples).
Diagram: a sketch of dense and sparse zones, or a cross-section like the one above.
Geographical: water (river valleys — Nile, Ganga, Yangtze); landforms (plains dense, Himalaya sparse); climate (Mediterranean settled early; hot and cold deserts, very wet areas sparse); soils (fertile loams → intensive farming).
Economic: minerals (Katanga–Zambia copper belt); industrialisation (Kobe–Osaka); urbanisation (mega cities pull rural migrants).
Social, cultural, political: religious centres attract; unrest repels; government incentives redistribute people.
Result: dense — East and South Asia, Europe, north-eastern USA; sparse — Sahara, Arctic, Amazon, Tibet (Beyond NCERT examples).
Diagram: a sketch of dense and sparse zones, or a cross-section like the one above.
Discuss the three stages of demographic transition. (150 words)
Define: a shift from high births and deaths to low births and deaths as society becomes urban, industrial and literate; the stages form the demographic cycle.
Stage I (high fluctuating): high fertility and mortality (epidemics, unreliable food); slow growth; agricultural society, large families an asset, low life expectancy, illiteracy, low technology; all countries 200 years ago.
Stage II (expanding): deaths fall with sanitation and health while births stay high and then decline; the gap gives a high net addition — Peru, Sri Lanka, Kenya in NCERT's figure.
Stage III (low fluctuating): both low; population stable or slow-growing; urban, literate, technically advanced; family size deliberately controlled — Canada, Japan, USA.
Conclude: humans adjust fertility; countries today are at different stages (Beyond NCERT: some, like Japan, now shrink).
Diagram: the transition curves.
Stage I (high fluctuating): high fertility and mortality (epidemics, unreliable food); slow growth; agricultural society, large families an asset, low life expectancy, illiteracy, low technology; all countries 200 years ago.
Stage II (expanding): deaths fall with sanitation and health while births stay high and then decline; the gap gives a high net addition — Peru, Sri Lanka, Kenya in NCERT's figure.
Stage III (low fluctuating): both low; population stable or slow-growing; urban, literate, technically advanced; family size deliberately controlled — Canada, Japan, USA.
Conclude: humans adjust fertility; countries today are at different stages (Beyond NCERT: some, like Japan, now shrink).
Diagram: the transition curves.
Map skill: on an outline map of the world, show and name the countries of Europe and Asia with a negative growth rate of population.
NCERT gives no list. Beyond NCERT, countries with long-running population decline include Japan in Asia and Bulgaria, Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Serbia and Croatia in Europe; others such as Italy, South Korea and Russia have also recorded falls in recent years. Use the latest UN or World Bank table, and mark them on an outline map (draw the outline from your atlas).
Project: has someone in your family migrated? Write about her/his place of destination and what made her/him migrate.
Structure your note as: who moved, from where to where, when, and whether it was permanent, temporary or seasonal; the push factors at home and the pull factors at the destination; and what changed for the family (remittances, education, separation).
Project: write a brief report on the distribution and density of population in your state.
Use the latest Census tables: total population and area → density; which districts are dense and which sparse; explain each with NCERT's three groups of factors (water and plains; industry and cities; religious or administrative centres).
What to remember
Numbers
World population at the start of the 21st century (NCERT)over 6 billion
Share of people on about 10% of land~90%
Share of the 10 most populous countries~60% (6 of them in Asia)
Region X example1,50,000 ÷ 100 sq km = 1,500 per sq km
CBR and CDR are expressedper 1,000 of mid-year population
India's population, 2011 (NCERT)121.02 crore (provisional)
India's population, 2001102.87 crore (NCERT misprints 102.70)
Growth 2001–2011 (NCERT)18.15 crore
Growth in the past 500 yearsmore than 10 times
Growth in the 20th century4 times
All countries in stage I of transition200 years ago
Fig. 2.2 axis marksCBR/CDR 35 and 15 per thousand
Malthus's theory1798
World reached 8 billion (UN, Beyond NCERT)15 November 2022
India most populous (UN estimate, Beyond NCERT)April 2023
Replacement-level TFR (Beyond NCERT)about 2.1; India 2.0 (NFHS-5, 2019–21)
One-liners
- Density = population ÷ area.
- Natural growth = B − D; actual growth = B − D + I − O.
- Water is the most important factor for life — river valleys are dense.
- Push at the origin, pull at the destination.
- Emigrant leaves; immigrant arrives — same person.
- DTT: high–high → high birth, low death → low–low.
- Stage II expands because deaths fall before births.
- Malthus: population outruns food; preventive checks beat physical checks.
Traps to avoid
- Population growth is slow, not high, in stage I.
- Medical and educational facilities are a pull factor.
- South-east Asia is dense; equatorial forests, the Atacama and polar lands are sparse.
- Fig. 2.1 shows China first; the UN says India passed China in 2023.
- ‘102.70 crore’ for 2001 is a misprint for 102.87 crore.
- Russia is the sixth Asian country in NCERT's top ten.
- Crude birth rate ≠ total fertility rate.
- Negative growth can come from emigration, not only from low births.
How to strategise
Prelims — what UPSC asks
- Demographic transition sequence was asked twice in almost the same words (1993, 2012); ageing and low-birth-rate countries — Italy, Japan, South Korea — in 2024; the definition of TFR in 2024.
- Density: its definition (1991), physiological density (1987), highest density in South Asia (2009), why the Nile valley and Java are dense (2001).
- Most populous countries: largest of a set (2003), order of Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Japan (2002), the two after China and India (2008) — learn Fig. 2.1 and update it (India first since 2023).
- Distribution and growth: half the world between 20°N and 40°N (1997); a birth-rate/death-rate graph to read (1992); fastest-growing region of Asia (1994, West Asia); a UN projection of zero growth (1984). Projections change — know the latest UN World Population Prospects headline.
Mains — where it appears and how to answer
- GS1: distribution and density in the Ganga basin with reference to land, soil and water (2025) — NCERT's geographical factors applied; the ‘demographic winter’ and whether the world is heading there (2024); why big cities attract more migrants than small towns (2024); challenges of demographic transition in India (2026); empowering women as the key to controlling population growth (2019); population growth as cause or effect of poverty (2015).
- Answer frame: define (density, growth, transition) → data (one or two numbers, with source and year) → causes (NCERT's factor groups, push–pull) → stage on the transition curve → consequences → policy (family planning, women's education, migration management).
- Draw the demographic transition curve in any growth answer and a push–pull diagram in any migration answer.
- Malthus versus demographic transition is the classic debate for ‘population and poverty’ questions: Malthus says population causes scarcity; the transition model says development lowers fertility.
Self-check
Tap an option. NCERT's own exercise questions come first; the rest test the figures and common confusions.
1. Which one of the following continents has the highest growth of population?
2. Which one of the following is not an area of sparse population?
3. Which one of the following is not a push factor?
4. Which one of the following is not a fact?
5. The correct sequence of demographic transition associated with economic development is:
6. A region of 100 sq km has 1,50,000 people. Its population density is:
7. Actual growth of population is given by:
8. According to Malthus (1798):
UPSC questions from this chapter
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